I think the majority of non-technical users want iDevices because it's what everyone else uses, it seems cool and easy to use, and thus, it must be a "safe" option.  If you don't want to mess around with stuff you don't understand, it makes sense to pay more for the safe option.

My thinking, however, is that there'll probably be a "winner" sooner or later, that will dominate the market.  This is driven by issues of compatibility as well as past behaviors of this sort.  When people buy a (non-Mac) computer from a typical computer shop, it has an x86 processor, installed with Windows on it.  Computer is practically synonymous to the "Wintel" platform these days, and I think the mobile platform will move in a similar direction.  If it turns out to be Android platform, then the iPhone will just become what Macs are today - loved by some, but only a minority market share.
Alternatively, if there happens to be a compatibility bridge between these two dominant platforms, they could possibly co-exist, but considering Apple's stance on trying to lock in stuff exclusively for their products, I'm doubting this will happen.

(This post was last modified: 05/12/2010 06:12 PM by ZiNgA BuRgA.)