http://www.longbets.org/bets
I recently came across this interesting site. It is, essentially, people making educated (for the most part) predictions, and others challenge the predictions with a detailed reason, and the two back up their stances with a bet. The bet supposedly goes to the charity of the challenger's choice if he or she wins, or, I believe, goes to the predictor if he or she wins.

I started reading some of the predictions, and found a few to be entertaining. Then I read a little more into how it worked. I eventually came across this:

Quote:The bet money, treated as a donation to the The Long Now Foundation, must be paid at the time the Bet is made, and is tax-deductible immediately. The entire amount goes into a long-term investment portfolio called the Farsight Fund --- its assets are in "Endowments", a mutual fund managed by Capital Research and Management Company. Half of the growth of that fund is drawn off to The Long Now Foundation, which maintains the Long Bets service;

I just don't know... It sounded pretty cool up until this point. I can see that maintenance of the service would be required, but I'm unsure about how I feel about the site now. What do you guys think? Would the amount accrued by such means be big enough for the whole idea to be interpreted as just a scheme, or is it an awesome, and reasonable, idea?

It's stupid.

(18/07/2010 02:59 PM)Cirehpsa Wrote:  It's stupid.

(19/07/2010 05:26 AM)ZiNgA BuRgA Wrote:  Seems somewhat dodgy, I mean:
http://www.longbets.org/1

$20k - really now?
I'm guessing for votes, you don't need to place any money (so there isn't that much of a "bet" assuming the website lasts for 27 years).
On the other hand, where does the other half go?

If wee assume an annual average growth rate of 10% for the fund, compounded yearly, $20k would be $262k in 2037.  If half goes to the Long Now Foundation, what about the rest?

That's kind of what Shady and I were talking about. Wee wondered where the records are that validated that the exchange even occurred. Then, it sounds like the money is being sent all different ways. Cool concept, but I don't know if I'd be so quick to put my cash up.  However, I did see that you can apparently ask for aid from organizations that take your stance, and they might back you up with help on the cash. Still... I'd prefer to see a full investigation by a third-party.