That's just a roundabout way of doing things in which you're basically saying that the shop believes they can sell the item at the high price.  My point is that their judgment is wrong.

ZiNgA BuRgA Wrote:That's just a roundabout way of doing things in which you're basically saying that the shop believes they can sell the item at the high price.  My point is that their judgment is wrong.

Whether their judgement is right or not is irrelevant. Just like whether your shares actually rose or fall afterwards is irrelevant when making the investment decision in the present.

Just finished a 15 page stats assignment. Really really tired now. Need to sleep.

(This post was last modified: 26/05/2009 08:20 PM by Assassinator.)

Assassinator Wrote:Whether their judgement is right or not is irrelevant. Just like whether your shares actually rose or fall afterwards is irrelevant when making the investment decision in the present.

Not true.  You buy/sell shares on expectations - so if you believe the share price will increase, you buy in the present.
Yes, there's always uncertainty, but in some cases, there is more than just an equal possibility between cases (ie, strong likelihood of prices going up rather than 50/50 chance)

15 page stats assignment?  I'm surprised they make you write such long things.  Longest assignment I've done here had a limit of 2200 words.
Have a nice afternoon nap.

(This post was last modified: 26/05/2009 08:33 PM by ZiNgA BuRgA.)

ZiNgA BuRgA Wrote:

Assassinator Wrote:Whether their judgement is right or not is irrelevant. Just like whether your shares actually rose or fall afterwards is irrelevant when making the investment decision in the present.

Not true.  You buy/sell shares on expectations - so if you believe the share price will increase, you buy in the present.
Yes, there's always uncertainty, but in some cases, there is more than just an equal possibility between cases (ie, strong likelihood of prices going up rather than 50/50 chance)

....Isn't that what I was talking about the whole time?

You expect to make profit, thus take the gamble. Whether you actually do make profit or not in the end (= you saying their judgement is wrong) is not part of the initial choosing process.

ZiNgA BuRgA Wrote:15 page stats assignment?  I'm surprised they make you write such long things.  Longest assignment I've done here had a limit of 2200 words.
Have a nice afternoon nap.

Well, it's stats, so more maths than words. If I were to add all the words up, probably only around 3 pages. The rest is S-plus commands, and plots and other random stuff.

Took like 10hours to do. Not that long actually, considering my 1st stat assignment took like more than twice that much time. And this one was modelling, which is easier than the other one, which was like proving shit. It's just that I had little sleep over the last 2 days.

(This post was last modified: 26/05/2009 08:41 PM by Assassinator.)

Assassinator Wrote:....Isn't that what I was talking about the whole time?

You expect to make profit, thus take the gamble. Whether you actually do make profit or not in the end (= you saying their judgement is wrong) is not part of the initial choosing process.

Urgh, you're thinking about it from a different perspective.
You charge double the price ($4000 more) for an item.  Do you expect to sell it?  The shop which stocked it thinks they can, but I'm saying the judgment is wrong.

Assassinator Wrote:It's just that I had little sleep over the last 2 days.

Eh, what you get for doing everything last minute :P

ZiNgA BuRgA Wrote:

Assassinator Wrote:....Isn't that what I was talking about the whole time?

You expect to make profit, thus take the gamble. Whether you actually do make profit or not in the end (= you saying their judgement is wrong) is not part of the initial choosing process.

Urgh, you're thinking about it from a different perspective.
You charge double the price ($4000 more) for an item.  Do you expect to sell it?  The shop which stocked it thinks they can, but I'm saying the judgment is wrong.

In that example... no I won't. I don't think my expected return can even come  close to making up for my risk. But there could be other factors in play, like if he doesn't sell it, he can always use it at home, or refund it for a lower pirce, or sell it at a discount, or whatever, so the losses probably isn't going to be as great as what I'm thinking on.

But that's a pretty damn extreme example. People generally don't overprice by even close to that much. Wait... I remember one of the shops here setting a core i7 940 for like $1400AUD, when it's like $840 in MSY... that's a pretty big difference too. (Not that you want to buy a 940 whichever way, since obviously 920 > it).

(This post was last modified: 26/05/2009 09:09 PM by Assassinator.)

Assassinator Wrote:In that example... no I won't. I don't think my expected return can even come  close to making up for my risk. But there could be other factors in play, like if he doesn't sell it, he can always use it at home, or refund it for a lower pirce, or sell it at a discount, or whatever, so the losses probably isn't going to be as great as what I'm thinking on.

Use it at home » still an extremely high price to pay for that.
Refund » doubt it (since he's not protected under consumer protection) and even if so, it's a depreciating item so you won't be able to refund it for much later on
Sell it at a discount » what most stores do if they can't sell something, which is the opposite of having a high price

Assassinator Wrote:But that's a pretty damn extreme example. People generally don't overprice by even close to that much. Wait... I remember one of the shops here setting a core i7 940 for like $1400AUD, when it's like $840 in MSY... that's a pretty big difference too. (Not that you want to buy a 940 whichever way, since obviously 920 > it).

Chances of selling that are pretty low (unless some multi-millionaire comes in and couldn't give a damn - most people of that type probably don't even bother to build the PC themselves so meh).  Most people build for the price savings - IMO customisability is somewhat a secondary reason.  So if you're not getting the cheapest parts (or close to it), there isn't too much reason...

trademark91 Wrote:perhaps the shop is knowingly overpricing it in an attempt to ensure the item either not selling, in which case they can use it personally while writing it off as a loss, or selling at a high enough price to buy one for themselves anywway...

In the first case, you can't really use it since you have to break open the packaging (and then you can only sell it second hand and a shorter warranty term).  Writing it off as a loss is an interesting concept, but it's still quite costly.
Second case wouldn't work if it never gets sold at the high price...